Bristol Rovers 0–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lincoln

A. Scully 16'

4/17/2021

League One · Round 42Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Bristol Rovers34%

×Draw27%

Lincoln39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.30

Bristol Rovers

1.21

Lincoln

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 156 away

1.20

creates per match

1.26

1.34

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Lincoln

1.26

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Lincoln

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

61%

Bristol Rovers or Lincoln

73%

Draw or Lincoln

66%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Lincoln wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

70%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

34%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Lincoln 1+ goals

73%

Lincoln 2+ goals

37%

Lincoln 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

47%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

34%

level

27%

Lincoln scores more

39%

Lincoln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Palmer

Lincoln · G

7.9

Match Events

16'

A. Scully↳ B. Johnson

36'

37'

37'

46'

51'

52'

55'

J. Jones← A. Edun

69'

M. Sanders← A. Scully

76'

E. Öztümer← Z. Westbrooke

82'

H. Anderson← B. Johnson

85'

J. Baldwin← P. Martinez

90'

Luke McCormick

90'

Jack Baldwin

90'

Regan Poole

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolLincoln

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots9

9Corners6

20Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target4

6Off Target4

6Blocked1

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

264Total Passes381

157Accurate Passes267

59%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln

Lincoln beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 in League One on April 17, 2021.

Goals: A. Scully (16').

Lincoln controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.

Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln