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Bristol Rovers vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
11/28/2023League OneLeague One · Round 20Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Bristol Rovers36%
×Draw26%
Leyton Orient38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.29
Leyton Orient
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 71 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
62%
Bristol Rovers or Leyton Orient
74%
Draw or Leyton Orient
64%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
16%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
37%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
74%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
38%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
49%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
36%
level
26%
Leyton Orient scores more
38%

Leyton Orient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Leyton Orient

Bristol Rovers and Leyton Orient drew 1-1 in League One on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.