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Bristol Rovers vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
B. Pitman 90+2' (pen)
A. Drinan 41'
T. Archibald 33'
H. Smith 17'
9/18/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%
×Draw26%
Leyton Orient31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.41
Leyton Orient
1.17

Bristol Rovers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 94 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.61
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.18
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
69%
Bristol Rovers or Leyton Orient
74%
Draw or Leyton Orient
58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
41%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
17%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
69%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
58%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
42%
level
26%
Leyton Orient scores more
31%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
T. JamesLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · M
8.0

Match Events

17'
H. Smith↳ T. James
28'
Sam Finley
33'
T. Archibald
41'
A. Drinan↳ T. James
45+1'
Alfie Kilgour
45+1'
Darren Pratley
45+1'
Aaron Drinan
46'
H. Saunders← N. Anderton
47'
Alex Mitchell
67'
H. Anderson← A. Collins
68'
L. Thomas← A. Evans
69'
Theodore Archibald
74'
S. Ogie← D. Happe
80'
Craig Clay
83'
Lawrence Vigouroux
90+2'
B. PitmanPenalty

Possession

59%Bristol

Shots

9Bristol

Pass accuracy

52%Bristol

Statistics

BristolLeyton
Overview
59%Possession41%
9Total Shots7
4Corners4
11Fouls20
Shots
9Total Shots7
1On Target3
4Off Target0
4Blocked4
6Inside Box5
3Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
429Total Passes293
278Accurate Passes175
65%Pass Accuracy60%
Discipline
11Fouls20
2Yellow Cards6
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Bristol Rovers 3-1 in League Two on September 18, 2021.

Goals: H. Smith (17'), T. Archibald (33'), A. Drinan (41'), B. Pitman (90+2' pen).

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.