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Bristol Rovers vs Hartlepool — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
A. Evans 90+4'
A. Collins 87'
1/15/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bristol Rovers51%
×Draw24%
Hartlepool25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.70
Hartlepool
1.11

Bristol Rovers creates 53% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 81 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.61
Hartlepool
1.05

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.18
Hartlepool
1.78

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Hartlepool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
75%
Bristol Rovers or Hartlepool
76%
Draw or Hartlepool
49%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
28%
Hartlepool wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
82%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
51%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
24%
Hartlepool 1+ goals
67%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
30%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
67%
Hartlepool (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
51%
level
24%
Hartlepool scores more
25%

Bristol Rovers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. EvansBristol RoversBristol Rovers · M
8.0

Match Events

28'
Cian Harries
39'
Gary Liddle
64'
David Ferguson
67'
M. Cullen← M. Carver
70'
Antony Evans
76'
Timi Odusina
80'
Neill Byrne
87'
A. Collins
89'
J. Grey← T. Crawford
90+3'
Jamie Sterry
90+1'
N. Anderton← S. Nicholson
90+1'
B. Pitman← R. Loft
90+1'
G. Whelan← H. Anderson
90+1'
J. Hull← G. Liddle
90+4'
A. Evans

Possession

45%Bristol

Shots

14Bristol

Pass accuracy

50%Bristol

Statistics

BristolHartlepool
Overview
45%Possession55%
14Total Shots11
2Corners12
15Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots11
3On Target3
9Off Target4
2Blocked4
7Inside Box9
7Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
366Total Passes441
275Accurate Passes327
75%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Hartlepool

Bristol Rovers beat Hartlepool 2-0 in League Two on January 15, 2022.

Goals: A. Collins (87'), A. Evans (90+4').

Hartlepool controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.