Bristol Rovers 3–0 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Harrogate Town

A. Collins 55', 33'

E. Anderson 39'

3/12/2022

League Two · Round 36Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bristol Rovers55%

×Draw23%

Harrogate Town23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.13

Bristol Rovers

1.88

Harrogate Town

1.13

Bristol Rovers creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

1.13

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Harrogate Town

1.13

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Harrogate Town

2.35

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Harrogate Town-0.46scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

77%

Bristol Rovers or Harrogate Town

77%

Draw or Harrogate Town

45%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

31%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

68%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

31%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

71%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Harrogate Town defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.88

Harrogate Town attack 1.13 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

55%

level

23%

Harrogate Town scores more

23%

Bristol Rovers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Collins

Bristol Rovers · F

8.7

Match Events

23'

A. Pattison← B. Diarra

33'

A. Collins↳ N. Wilmer-Anderton

39'

41'

44'

53'

55'

70'

H. Saunders← S. Finley

70'

G. Whelan← P. Coutts

70'

L. Richards← R. McArdle

73'

C. Kavanagh← L. Armstrong

79'

R. Loft← H. Anderson

90+5'

Nick Anderton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolHarrogate

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots11

5Corners5

8Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target2

2Off Target4

6Blocked5

5Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

503Total Passes296

377Accurate Passes189

75%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2