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Bristol Rovers vs Forest Green — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
3 – 4
Forest Green
Forest Green
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stanley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bristol Rovers37%
×Draw21%
Forest Green42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.90
Forest Green
2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.80
Forest Green
2.50

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.60
Forest Green
2.00

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
58%
Bristol Rovers or Forest Green
79%
Draw or Forest Green
63%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
19%
Forest Green wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
85%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
56%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
29%
Forest Green 1+ goals
87%
Forest Green 2+ goals
61%
Forest Green 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
46%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Forest Green away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.80 + Forest Green defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Forest Green attack 2.50 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
37%
level
21%
Forest Green scores more
42%

Forest Green at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bristol Rovers 3–4 Forest Green

Forest Green beat Bristol Rovers 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stanley Park in Chippenham, Wiltshire.