Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town

Bristol Rovers

Preview

15:00

Crawley Town

2/6/2027

League Two · Round 29Memorial Stadium

Big match

40%

Bristol Rovers

model favours

40%25%35%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bristol Rovers40%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.36

Bristol Rovers

1.48

Crawley Town

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.16

creates per match

1.51

1.21

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.16

Crawley Town

1.51

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.21

Crawley Town

1.80

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.51scores more

Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

65%

Bristol Rovers or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

60%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

19%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

77%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

43%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

74%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

39%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

54%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.16 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

40%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

35%

Bristol Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Bristol Rovers

Defensively solid

Crawley Town

Balanced

51%Possession54%

66%Pass accuracy71%

11.5Shots12.7

1.21xGBiggest gap1.41

Bristol RoversCrawley Town

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3

Bristol Rovers

1

Draws

2

Crawley Town

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 33%

3–10–40–10–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Rovers

DDLW

Town

DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff