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Bristol Rovers vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
Preview
15:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
3/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Memorial Stadium
Big match
44%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
44%27%29%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bristol Rovers44%
×Draw27%
Cheltenham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.40
Cheltenham
1.07

Bristol Rovers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.40
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.13
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
71%
Bristol Rovers or Cheltenham
73%
Draw or Cheltenham
56%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
21%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
75%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
41%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
17%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
66%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
29%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
61%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
44%
level
27%
Cheltenham scores more
29%

Bristol Rovers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
Cheltenham
Balanced
52%Possession48%
66%Pass accuracy66%
12.5Shots10.6
1.38xGBiggest gap1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol RoversCheltenham

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

4
Bristol Rovers
1
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 67%
4–00–13–11–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rovers
DDLW
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol Rovers face Cheltenham (League Two)

League Two returns with Bristol Rovers hosting Cheltenham. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bristol Rovers host Cheltenham at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.