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Bristol Rovers vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
CANC
14:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
4/13/2020League OneLeague One · Round 43Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.40
Burton Albion
1.20

Bristol Rovers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 176 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.20
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.34
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
68%
Bristol Rovers or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
75%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
41%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
17%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
70%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
34%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
56%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
42%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
32%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bristol Rovers host Burton Albion

April 13, 2020: Bristol Rovers take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bristol Rovers host Burton Albion at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.