Bristol Rovers 0–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

3/13/2021

League One · Round 36Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%

×Draw27%

AFC Wimbledon31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

Bristol Rovers

1.39

AFC Wimbledon

1.15

Bristol Rovers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 109 away

1.20

creates per match

0.96

1.34

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

AFC Wimbledon

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

69%

Bristol Rovers or AFC Wimbledon

73%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

75%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

40%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

16%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

68%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

32%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

42%

level

27%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

31%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Z. Westbrooke

Bristol Rovers · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

Nesta Guinness-Walker

23'

41'

48'

55'

65'

R. Longman← S. McLoughlin

67'

B. Hanlan← A. Rodman

73'

O. Palmer← G. Dobson

83'

J. Oksanen← A. Woodyard

84'

J. Daly← J. Ayunga

90'

James Daly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolAFC

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots10

8Corners5

6Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots10

4On Target3

9Off Target4

6Blocked3

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

339Total Passes370

214Accurate Passes237

63%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2