Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bristol City W vs Reading W — FA WSL 2018

Bristol City W
Bristol City W
CANC
00:00
Reading W
Reading W
2/9/2020FA WSLFA WSL · Round 9Stoke Gifford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bristol City W29%
×Draw23%
Reading W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City W
1.35
Reading W
1.77

Reading W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 49 away

creates per match

Bristol City W
0.61
Reading W
1.16

allows per match

Bristol City W
2.37
Reading W
2.10

finishing

Bristol City W+0.00on par
Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City W ↓

Reading W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bristol City W or draw
53%
Bristol City W or Reading W
77%
Draw or Reading W
71%

Winning margin

Bristol City W wins by 2+
13%
Reading W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bristol City W 1+ goals
74%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
39%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
15%
Reading W 1+ goals
83%
Reading W 2+ goals
53%
Reading W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bristol City W (draw refunded)
38%
Reading W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City W at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Reading W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.10 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City W attack 0.61 + Reading W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Reading W attack 1.16 + Bristol City W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol City W scores more
29%
level
23%
Reading W scores more
47%

Reading W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bristol City W host Reading W

February 9, 2020: Bristol City W take on Reading W in FA WSL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bristol City W host Reading W at Stoke Gifford Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.