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Bristol City W vs Chelsea W — FA WSL 2018

Bristol City W
Bristol City W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Chelsea W
Chelsea W
12/17/2023FA WSLFA WSL · Round 10Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bristol City W8%
×Draw15%
Chelsea W78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City W
0.66
Chelsea W
2.54

Chelsea W creates 285% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 83 away

creates per match

Bristol City W
0.61
Chelsea W
2.71

allows per match

Bristol City W
2.37
Chelsea W
0.70

finishing

Bristol City W+0.00on par
Chelsea W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City W ↓

Chelsea W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bristol City W or draw
22%
Bristol City W or Chelsea W
85%
Draw or Chelsea W
92%

Winning margin

Bristol City W wins by 2+
2%
Chelsea W wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Bristol City W 1+ goals
48%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
14%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
3%
Chelsea W 1+ goals
92%
Chelsea W 2+ goals
72%
Chelsea W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Bristol City W (draw refunded)
9%
Chelsea W (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City W at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Chelsea W away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City W attack 0.61 + Chelsea W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.66

Chelsea W attack 2.71 + Bristol City W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Bristol City W scores more
8%
level
15%
Chelsea W scores more
78%

Chelsea W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol City W vs Chelsea W

Chelsea W beat Bristol City W 3-0 in FA WSL on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.