Bristol City W 0–2 Aston Villa W: Result & Stats

Bristol City W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa W

11/12/2023

FA WSL · Round 6Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bristol City W26%

×Draw23%

Aston Villa W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol City WExpected goals in this matchAston Villa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.82

Bristol City W

1.22

Aston Villa W

1.82

Aston Villa W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 66 away

0.61

creates per match

1.27

2.37

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Bristol City W

0.61

Aston Villa W

1.27

allows per match

Bristol City W

2.37

Aston Villa W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City W+0.00on par

Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City W ↓

Aston Villa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bristol City W or draw

49%

Bristol City W or Aston Villa W

77%

Draw or Aston Villa W

74%

Winning margin

Bristol City W wins by 2+

10%

Aston Villa W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Bristol City W 1+ goals

70%

Bristol City W 2+ goals

34%

Bristol City W 3+ goals

12%

Aston Villa W 1+ goals

84%

Aston Villa W 2+ goals

54%

Aston Villa W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bristol City W (draw refunded)

33%

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City W at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City W attack 0.61 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.22

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Bristol City W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bristol City W scores more

26%

level

23%

Aston Villa W scores more

51%

Aston Villa W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff