Bristol City 2–2 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wrexham

M. Bird 89'

S. Armstrong 47'

J. Williams 76' (OG)

O. Rathbone 34'

2/17/2026

Championship · Round 32Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Bristol City47%

×Draw26%

Wrexham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.04

Bristol City

1.47

Wrexham

1.04

Bristol City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 18 away

1.31

creates per match

0.86

1.23

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Bristol City

1.31

Wrexham

0.86

allows per match

Bristol City

1.23

Wrexham

1.62

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.16scores more

Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

73%

Bristol City or Wrexham

74%

Draw or Wrexham

53%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

23%

Wrexham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

77%

Bristol City 2+ goals

43%

Bristol City 3+ goals

18%

Wrexham 1+ goals

65%

Wrexham 2+ goals

28%

Wrexham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

64%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.31 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Bristol City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol City scores more

47%

level

26%

Wrexham scores more

27%

Bristol City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Armstrong

Bristol City · F

7.9

Match Events

34'

40'

44'

46'

46'

S. Armstrong← E. Riis

46'

D. Burgzorg← M. Sykes

47'

S. Armstrong↳ T. Horvat

54'

Max Cleworth

63'

M. Bird← T. Horvat

71'

J. Williams← A. Randell

71'

G. Dobson← N. Broadhead

71'

J. Windass← O. Rathbone

71'

K. Moore← S. Smith

73'

Dominic Hyam

76'

J. WilliamsOwn goal

89'

M. Bird↳ J. Knight

90+1'

Delano Burgzorg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWrexham

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots9

0.38Expected Goals (xG)1.07

3Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots9

5On Target3

3Off Target4

0Blocked2

3Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

492Total Passes486

404Accurate Passes399

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.71Goals Prevented-0.71

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3