Bristol City 1–0 West Ham: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Ham

T. Conway 3'

1/16/2024

League #45 · 3rd Round ReplaysAshton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bristol City24%

×Draw26%

West Ham50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.50

Bristol City

0.95

West Ham

1.50

West Ham creates 58% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Bristol City

1.40

West Ham

2.00

allows per match

Bristol City

1.00

West Ham

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

50%

Bristol City or West Ham

74%

Draw or West Ham

76%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

8%

West Ham wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

61%

Bristol City 2+ goals

25%

Bristol City 3+ goals

7%

West Ham 1+ goals

78%

West Ham 2+ goals

44%

West Ham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

32%

West Ham (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

West Ham away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.40 + West Ham defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.95

West Ham attack 2.00 + Bristol City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bristol City scores more

24%

level

26%

West Ham scores more

50%

West Ham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Tanner

Bristol City · D

7.5

Match Events

3'

50'

51'

61'

61'

63'

Taylor Gardner-Hickman

64'

Aaron Cresswell

66'

B. Johnson← V. Coufal

75'

J. Knight← T. Gardner-Hickman

75'

H. Cornick← A. Mehmeti

80'

C. Marshall← A. Cresswell

81'

D. Mubama← D. Ings

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWest

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots11

6Corners9

7Fouls4

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target2

6Off Target4

4Blocked5

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

438Total Passes565

360Accurate Passes463

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls4

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1