Bristol City 0–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

B. Thomas-Asante 75'

M. Phillips 9'

12/26/2022

Championship · Round 24Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 52+ matches

Bristol City39%

×Draw27%

West Brom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Bristol City

1.27

West Brom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 52 away

1.30

creates per match

1.14

1.19

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bristol City

1.30

West Brom

1.14

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

West Brom

1.24

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.14scores more

West Brom-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

66%

Bristol City or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

61%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

17%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

72%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

53%

West Brom (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 61 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.30 + West Brom defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Brom attack 1.14 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol City scores more

39%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

34%

Bristol City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

O. Yokuşlu

West Brom · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

M. Phillips↳ C. Townsend

52'

R. Atkinson← A. King

64'

T. Rogić← J. Swift

64'

B. Thomas-Asante← D. Dike

65'

Joe Williams

70'

Matty James

71'

G. Tanner← A. Weimann

71'

M. Sykes← J. Williams

71'

G. Diangana← J. Wallace

75'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ T. Rogić

79'

A. Semenyo← A. Scott

80'

S. Bell← N. Wells

82'

T. Gardner-Hickman← J. Molumby

82'

K. Ahearne-Grant← M. Phillips

88'

Darnell Furlong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWest

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots15

8Corners6

11Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target4

1Off Target5

4Blocked6

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

443Total Passes422

350Accurate Passes343

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4