Bristol City 4–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Plymouth

H. Cornick 80'

M. Sykes 33'

M. James 8'

S. Bell 3'

A. Randell 26'

9/19/2023

Championship · Round 7Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bristol City80%

×Draw12%

Plymouth7%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.93

0.77

Bristol City

2.93

Plymouth

0.77

Bristol City creates 281% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 3 away

1.53

creates per match

0.33

1.20

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Bristol City

1.53

Plymouth

0.33

allows per match

Bristol City

1.20

Plymouth

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

93%

Bristol City or Plymouth

88%

Draw or Plymouth

20%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

61%

Plymouth wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

94%

Bristol City 2+ goals

78%

Bristol City 3+ goals

55%

Plymouth 1+ goals

54%

Plymouth 2+ goals

18%

Plymouth 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

92%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.20 · 64 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.53 + Plymouth defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.93

Plymouth attack 0.33 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Bristol City scores more

80%

level

12%

Plymouth scores more

7%

Bristol City at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. James

Bristol City · M

7.6

Match Events

3'

8'

26'

33'

35'

46'

M. Whittaker← T. Wright

46'

J. Houghton← L. Warrington

60'

T. Gardner-Hickman← J. Knight

60'

60'

61'

61'

67'

71'

71'

72'

80'

H. Cornick↳ K. Naismith

90+3'

Ephraim Yeboah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolPlymouth

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots6

1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.58

7Corners1

9Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots6

6On Target2

6Off Target3

5Blocked1

13Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

425Total Passes561

314Accurate Passes454

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2

Championship: Bristol City 4–1 Plymouth

Bristol City beat Plymouth 4-1 in Championship on September 19, 2023.

Goals: S. Bell (3'), M. James (8'), A. Randell (26'), M. Sykes (33'), H. Cornick (80').

Plymouth controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 17.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.

Bristol City vs Plymouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Bristol City 4–1 Plymouth