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Bristol City vs Newport County — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Newport County
Newport County
7/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bristol City73%
×Draw16%
Newport County11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
2.48
Newport County
0.85

Bristol City creates 192% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bristol City
3.08
Newport County
1.13

allows per match

Bristol City
0.58
Newport County
1.88

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par
Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
89%
Bristol City or Newport County
84%
Draw or Newport County
27%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
50%
Newport County wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
92%
Bristol City 2+ goals
70%
Bristol City 3+ goals
44%
Newport County 1+ goals
57%
Newport County 2+ goals
21%
Newport County 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
87%
Newport County (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 3.08 + Newport County defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.48

Newport County attack 1.13 + Bristol City defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bristol City scores more
73%
level
16%
Newport County scores more
11%

Bristol City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Newport County

Bristol City and Newport County drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 21, 2026.