Bristol City 0–0 Leeds: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leeds

10/26/2024

Championship · Round 12Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bristol City31%

×Draw26%

Leeds43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.48

Bristol City

1.21

Leeds

1.48

Leeds creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 7 away

1.35

creates per match

1.63

1.33

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bristol City

1.35

Leeds

1.63

allows per match

Bristol City

1.33

Leeds

1.06

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.08on par

Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

57%

Bristol City or Leeds

74%

Draw or Leeds

69%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Leeds wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

70%

Bristol City 2+ goals

34%

Bristol City 3+ goals

12%

Leeds 1+ goals

77%

Leeds 2+ goals

43%

Leeds 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

42%

Leeds (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.35 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Leeds attack 1.63 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol City scores more

31%

level

26%

Leeds scores more

43%

Leeds at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff