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Bristol City vs Exeter City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
H. Cornick 70', 57'
J. Magennis 81' (pen)
7/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Robins High Performance Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bristol City69%
×Draw17%
Exeter City14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
2.52
Exeter City
1.06

Bristol City creates 138% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bristol City
2.80
Exeter City
1.13

allows per match

Bristol City
1.00
Exeter City
2.25

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
86%
Bristol City or Exeter City
83%
Draw or Exeter City
31%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
47%
Exeter City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
92%
Bristol City 2+ goals
71%
Bristol City 3+ goals
45%
Exeter City 1+ goals
65%
Exeter City 2+ goals
29%
Exeter City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
83%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 2.80 + Exeter City defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Exeter City attack 1.13 + Bristol City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bristol City scores more
69%
level
17%
Exeter City scores more
14%

Bristol City at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
J. Williams← T. Backwell
46'
Z. Vyner← C. Wood
46'
S. Bell← R. Nelson
46'
J. Aitchison← C. Watts
46'
J. McMillan← R. Woods
46'
V. Harper← Y. Wildschut
46'
I. Niskanen← T. Dean
57'
H. Cornick
62'
J. Richards← C. Cummins
62'
M. Alli← J. Magennis
62'
E. Francis← P. Borges
70'
H. Cornick
70'
K. Naismith← J. James
70'
H. Cornick← A. Benarous
81'
J. MagennisPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bristol City 2–1 Exeter City

Bristol City beat Exeter City 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 27, 2024.

Goals: H. Cornick (57', 70'), J. Magennis (81' pen).

The match was played at Robins High Performance Centre in Failand, Somerset.