Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bristol City vs Derby — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
Preview
14:00
Derby
Derby
4/24/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Ashton Gate Stadium
38%
Bristol City
model favours
38%27%35%

Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Bristol City38%
×Draw27%
Derby35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.25
Derby
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.07
Derby
0.96

allows per match

Bristol City
1.42
Derby
1.43

finishing

Bristol City-0.07on par
Derby+0.20scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
65%
Bristol City or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
62%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
16%
Derby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
71%
Bristol City 2+ goals
36%
Bristol City 3+ goals
13%
Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
33%
Derby 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
52%
Derby (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Derby away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.07 + Derby defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Derby attack 0.96 + Bristol City defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more
38%
level
27%
Derby scores more
35%

Bristol City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bristol City
Balanced
Derby
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession45%
78%Pass accuracy74%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap10.2
1.02xG1.10
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol CityDerby

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLDLD
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol City vs Derby — Match Preview

Bristol City face Derby on April 24, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bristol City host Derby at Ashton Gate Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.