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Bristol City vs Charlton — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
Preview
15:00
Charlton
Charlton
2/27/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Ashton Gate Stadium
Big match
38%
Charlton
model favours
34%28%38%

Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bristol City34%
×Draw28%
Charlton38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.16
Charlton
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.05
Charlton
1.14

allows per match

Bristol City
1.35
Charlton
1.26

finishing

Bristol City-0.13scores less
Charlton-0.47scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
62%
Bristol City or Charlton
72%
Draw or Charlton
66%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
14%
Charlton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%
Charlton 1+ goals
71%
Charlton 2+ goals
36%
Charlton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
47%
Charlton (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 25 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Charlton attack 1.14 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more
34%
level
28%
Charlton scores more
38%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Bristol City
Balanced
Charlton
Balanced
49%Possession46%
78%Pass accuracy71%
11.5Shots11.3
1.05xGBiggest gap1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol CityCharlton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Bristol City
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
2–10–02–32–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLDLD
Charlton
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol City vs Charlton — Match Preview

Bristol City face Charlton on February 27, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bristol City host Charlton at Ashton Gate Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.