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Bristol City vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
Preview
14:00
Burnley
Burnley
4/10/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Ashton Gate Stadium
51%
Burnley
model favours
23%26%51%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bristol City23%
×Draw26%
Burnley51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
0.93
Burnley
1.52

Burnley creates 63% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 22 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.31
Burnley
1.73

allows per match

Bristol City
1.31
Burnley
0.55

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
49%
Bristol City or Burnley
74%
Draw or Burnley
77%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
8%
Burnley wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
61%
Bristol City 2+ goals
24%
Bristol City 3+ goals
7%
Burnley 1+ goals
78%
Burnley 2+ goals
45%
Burnley 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
31%
Burnley (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.31 + Burnley defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.93

Burnley attack 1.73 + Bristol City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bristol City scores more
23%
level
26%
Burnley scores more
51%

Burnley at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches
  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Bristol City and Burnley have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
WLDLD
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bristol City host Burnley

April 10, 2027: Bristol City take on Burnley in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bristol City host Burnley at Ashton Gate Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.