Bristol City 1–1 Brentford: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brentford

E. Pisano 20'

N. Maupay 53'

12/26/2018

Championship · Round 24Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Bristol City34%

×Draw27%

Brentford39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Bristol City

1.19

Brentford

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 191 home / 70 away

1.28

creates per match

1.41

1.20

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Bristol City

1.28

Brentford

1.41

allows per match

Bristol City

1.20

Brentford

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

61%

Bristol City or Brentford

73%

Draw or Brentford

66%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

14%

Brentford wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

70%

Bristol City 2+ goals

33%

Bristol City 3+ goals

12%

Brentford 1+ goals

73%

Brentford 2+ goals

37%

Brentford 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

46%

Brentford (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 191 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.28 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Brentford attack 1.41 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol City scores more

34%

level

27%

Brentford scores more

39%

Brentford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Pisano

Bristol City · D

7.6

Match Events

20'

E. Pisano↳ J. Paterson

26'

Neal Maupay

53'

N. Maupay↳ O. Watkins

70'

Sergi Canós← S. Benrahma

73'

J. Dasilva← L. Kelly

73'

M. Taylor← A. Weimann

82'

A. Judge← O. Watkins

88'

N. Eliasson← C. ODowda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolBrentford

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots14

3Corners4

8Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target3

6Off Target8

0Blocked3

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

440Total Passes429

311Accurate Passes320

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3