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Bristol City vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
J. Zemura 45+1'
J. Lowe 21'
10/16/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bristol City31%
×Draw28%
Bournemouth41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.10
Bournemouth
1.30

Bournemouth creates 18% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.28
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Bristol City
1.20
Bournemouth
0.92

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
59%
Bristol City or Bournemouth
72%
Draw or Bournemouth
69%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
12%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
67%
Bristol City 2+ goals
30%
Bristol City 3+ goals
10%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
73%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
37%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
43%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 191 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.28 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol City scores more
31%
level
28%
Bournemouth scores more
41%

Bournemouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
R. ChristieBournemouthBournemouth · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
N. Wells← J. Williams
21'
J. Lowe↳ J. Stacey
40'
Gary Cahill
45+1'
J. Zemura↳ R. Christie
46'
J. Dasilva← C. ODowda
64'
J. Lerma← J. Lowe
66'
T. Bakinson← C. Pring
68'
Lloyd Kelly
81'
J. Stanislas← P. Billing
88'
M. Rogers← R. Christie

Possession

26%Bristol

Shots

5Bristol

Pass accuracy

39%Bristol

Statistics

BristolBournemouth
Overview
26%Possession74%
5Total Shots22
5Corners11
4Fouls7
Shots
5Total Shots22
2On Target5
3Off Target10
0Blocked7
5Inside Box18
0Outside Box4
Passing
26%Possession74%
211Total Passes605
114Accurate Passes522
54%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
4Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on October 16, 2021.

Goals: J. Lowe (21'), J. Zemura (45+1').

Bournemouth controlled possession (74%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.