Bristol City 2–1 Bolton: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

K. Palmer 66'

M. Taylor 64'

W. Buckley 58'

1/12/2019

Championship · Round 27Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bristol City55%

×Draw24%

Bolton21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.97

Bristol City

1.74

Bolton

0.97

Bristol City creates 79% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 20 away

1.53

creates per match

0.75

1.20

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Bristol City

1.53

Bolton

0.75

allows per match

Bristol City

1.20

Bolton

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

79%

Bristol City or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

45%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

31%

Bolton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

82%

Bristol City 2+ goals

52%

Bristol City 3+ goals

25%

Bolton 1+ goals

62%

Bolton 2+ goals

25%

Bolton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

73%

Bolton (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.20 · 64 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.53 + Bolton defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bolton attack 0.75 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bristol City scores more

55%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

21%

Bristol City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Taylor

Bristol City · F

8.2

Match Events

44'

Josh Magennis

58'

W. Buckley↳ S. Ameobi

61'

K. Palmer← A. Weimann

62'

J. Dasilva← L. Kelly

62'

M. Taylor← J. Paterson

64'

M. Taylor

66'

K. Palmer↳ M. Taylor

69'

Jason Lowe

77'

C. Donaldson← W. Buckley

85'

J. Vela← L. Murphy

85'

L. Dyer← J. Grounds

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolBolton

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots8

9Corners0

11Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots8

5On Target4

9Off Target3

6Blocked1

9Inside Box6

11Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

541Total Passes243

426Accurate Passes132

79%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2