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Bristol City vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
Preview
18:45
Blackburn
Blackburn
10/13/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Ashton Gate Stadium
Big match
45%
Blackburn
model favours
29%27%45%

Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bristol City29%
×Draw27%
Blackburn45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.08
Blackburn
1.42

Blackburn creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.04
Blackburn
1.49

allows per match

Bristol City
1.35
Blackburn
1.13

finishing

Bristol City-0.08on par
Blackburn-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
55%
Bristol City or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
71%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
11%
Blackburn wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
66%
Bristol City 2+ goals
29%
Bristol City 3+ goals
10%
Blackburn 1+ goals
76%
Blackburn 2+ goals
41%
Blackburn 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
39%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Blackburn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Blackburn attack 1.49 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bristol City scores more
29%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
45%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bristol City sit 12, Blackburn 22 in the table
  • Blackburn fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Bristol City
Balanced
Blackburn
Balanced
49%Possession51%
78%Pass accuracy76%
11.1Shots10.4
1.01xGBiggest gap1.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol CityBlackburn

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Bristol City
0
Draws
2
Blackburn
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 40%
2–10–12–10–35–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLDLD
Blackburn
DLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol City vs Blackburn — Match Preview

Bristol City face Blackburn on October 13, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bristol City host Blackburn at Ashton Gate Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.