Blackburn 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bristol City

Y. Ohashi 6'

S. Twine 31'

E. Riis 17'

2/24/2026

Championship · Round 34Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Blackburn43%

×Draw27%

Bristol City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Blackburn

1.33

Bristol City

1.06

Blackburn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

1.31

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Bristol City

1.35

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

70%

Blackburn or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

57%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Bristol City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

29%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

59%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blackburn scores more

43%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

30%

Blackburn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Vitek

Bristol City · G

8.2

Match Events

6'

Y. Ohashi↳ R. Morishita

17'

E. Riis

30'

Ryoya Morishita

31'

S. Twine↳ E. Riis

42'

Yuki Ohashi

45+3'

Sam Morsy

46'

M. Baradji← S. Tronstad

46'

Neto Borges← R. Atkinson

58'

S. Armstrong← E. Riis

59'

A. Randell← S. Morsy

59'

D. Burgzorg← S. Twine

67'

A. Gudjohnsen← M. Jorgensen

67'

D. De Neve← H. Pickering

83'

O. Afolayan← K. Montgomery

86'

Jason Knight

90+2'

M. Bird← T. Horvat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBristol

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots10

2.20Expected Goals (xG)0.78

6Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots10

7On Target5

8Off Target5

4Blocked0

14Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

401Total Passes483

283Accurate Passes356

71%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

1.42Goals Prevented1.42

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Bristol City

Bristol City beat Blackburn 2-1 in Championship on February 24, 2026.

Goals: Y. Ohashi (6'), E. Riis (17'), S. Twine (31').

Bristol City controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 19.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.

Blackburn vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Bristol City