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Bristol City vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
A. Semenyo 68'
B. Dack 54'
1/21/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Bristol City42%
×Draw27%
Blackburn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.35
Blackburn
1.11

Bristol City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.32
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

Bristol City
1.22
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
69%
Bristol City or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
58%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
20%
Blackburn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
74%
Bristol City 2+ goals
39%
Bristol City 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
67%
Blackburn 2+ goals
30%
Blackburn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
58%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.32 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Bristol City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol City scores more
42%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
31%

Bristol City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
R. AtkinsonBristol CityBristol City · D
7.7

Match Events

38'
Daniel Ayala
43'
Scott Wharton
54'
B. Dack↳ T. Morton
66'
S. Bell← M. Sykes
68'
A. Semenyo
74'
Daniel Ayala
74'
Daniel Ayala
75'
H. Carter← J. Vale
79'
Zak Vyner

Possession

56%Bristol

Shots

11Bristol

Pass accuracy

52%Bristol

Statistics

BristolBlackburn
Overview
56%Possession44%
11Total Shots6
5Corners3
10Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots6
3On Target2
6Off Target4
2Blocked0
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
522Total Passes422
417Accurate Passes309
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Championship: Bristol City 1–1 Blackburn

Bristol City and Blackburn drew 1-1 in Championship on January 21, 2023.

Goals: B. Dack (54'), A. Semenyo (68').

Bristol City controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.