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Bristol City vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
F. Diedhiou 82'
12/9/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Bristol City42%
×Draw27%
Blackburn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.33
Blackburn
1.10

Bristol City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.29
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

Bristol City
1.19
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
69%
Bristol City or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
58%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
19%
Blackburn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
74%
Bristol City 2+ goals
38%
Bristol City 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
67%
Blackburn 2+ goals
30%
Blackburn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
58%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol City scores more
42%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
31%

Bristol City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. BentleyBristol CityBristol City · G
8.3

Match Events

38'
Nahki Wells
70'
T. Dolan← L. Holtby
75'
F. Diedhiou← A. Semenyo
82'
F. Diedhiou↳ C. Martin
86'
T. Moore← N. Wells
86'
J. Buckley← J. Rothwell
87'
J. Davenport← S. Gallagher
90+1'
A. Mariappa← C. Martin

Possession

40%Bristol

Shots

16Bristol

Pass accuracy

47%Bristol

Statistics

BristolBlackburn
Overview
40%Possession60%
16Total Shots22
5Corners8
11Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots22
3On Target7
10Off Target10
3Blocked5
12Inside Box9
4Outside Box13
Passing
40%Possession60%
322Total Passes485
227Accurate Passes387
70%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Blackburn

Bristol City beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on December 9, 2020.

Goals: F. Diedhiou (82').

Blackburn controlled possession (60%) and registered 22 shots to 16.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.