Bristol City 4–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Blackburn

M. Pack 82'

F. Diedhiou 73'

M. Watkins 55'

J. Brownhill 38'

C. Mulgrew 13'

9/2/2018

Championship · Round 6Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Bristol City42%

×Draw27%

Blackburn31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Bristol City

1.33

Blackburn

1.10

Bristol City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

1.29

creates per match

1.01

1.19

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Blackburn

1.38

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

69%

Bristol City or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

58%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

19%

Blackburn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

74%

Bristol City 2+ goals

38%

Bristol City 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

67%

Blackburn 2+ goals

30%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

58%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol City scores more

42%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

31%

Bristol City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

N. Eliasson

Bristol City · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

C. Mulgrew

38'

J. Brownhill

55'

M. Watkins↳ M. Taylor

56'

B. Brereton← D. Graham

66'

C. O'Dowda← M. Watkins

66'

J. Rothwell← R. Nyambe

67'

F. Diedhiou← M. Taylor

72'

J. Nuttall← K. Palmer

73'

F. Diedhiou↳ A. Weimann

82'

M. Pack

84'

J. Paterson← A. Weimann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolBlackburn

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots13

8Corners5

8Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots13

11On Target2

6Off Target5

2Blocked6

10Inside Box3

9Outside Box10

Passing

48%Possession52%

348Total Passes385

232Accurate Passes254

67%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2