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Brisbane Strikers vs Logan Lightning — Queensland Premier League 2026

Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
M. Thurtell 87', 3'
M. Worthington 67'
S. Renjifo 10'
K. Greaves 6'
5/3/2025Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 9Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Brisbane Strikers54%
×Draw21%
Logan Lightning26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Strikers
2.21
Logan Lightning
1.48

Brisbane Strikers creates 49% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 44 away

creates per match

Brisbane Strikers
2.32
Logan Lightning
1.84

allows per match

Brisbane Strikers
1.11
Logan Lightning
2.09

finishing

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Strikers ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Brisbane Strikers or draw
74%
Brisbane Strikers or Logan Lightning
79%
Draw or Logan Lightning
46%

Winning margin

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
33%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
89%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
65%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
38%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
77%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
43%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
68%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Strikers at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.11 · 53 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.32 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.21

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brisbane Strikers scores more
54%
level
21%
Logan Lightning scores more
26%

Brisbane Strikers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
M. Thurtell
6'
K. Greaves
10'
S. Renjifo
67'
M. Worthington
87'
M. Thurtell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Strikers vs Logan Lightning

Brisbane Strikers beat Logan Lightning 4-1 in Queensland Premier League on May 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Thurtell (3', 87'), K. Greaves (6'), S. Renjifo (10'), M. Worthington (67').

The match was played at Perry Park in Brisbane.