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Brisbane Strikers vs Albany Creek — Queensland Premier League 2026

Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
FT
1 – 0
Albany Creek
Albany Creek
3/25/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 5Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Brisbane Strikers52%
×Draw23%
Albany Creek25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Strikers
1.85
Albany Creek
1.20

Brisbane Strikers creates 54% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brisbane Strikers
2.33
Albany Creek
1.27

allows per match

Brisbane Strikers
1.12
Albany Creek
1.36

finishing

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par
Albany Creek+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Strikers ↓

Albany Creek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brisbane Strikers or draw
75%
Brisbane Strikers or Albany Creek
77%
Draw or Albany Creek
48%

Winning margin

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
30%
Albany Creek wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
84%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
55%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
28%
Albany Creek 1+ goals
70%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
34%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
68%
Albany Creek (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Strikers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

Albany Creek away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.33 + Albany Creek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Albany Creek attack 1.27 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brisbane Strikers scores more
52%
level
23%
Albany Creek scores more
25%

Brisbane Strikers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Brisbane Strikers 1–0 Albany Creek

Brisbane Strikers beat Albany Creek 1-0 in Queensland Premier League on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Perry Park in Brisbane.