Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brisbane Roar vs Auckland — A-League 2018

Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Auckland
Auckland
3/30/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 24Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Brisbane Roar25%
×Draw25%
Auckland50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar
1.09
Auckland
1.64

Auckland creates 50% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 28 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar
1.30
Auckland
1.75

allows per match

Brisbane Roar
1.52
Auckland
0.89

finishing

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par
Auckland+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar ↓

Auckland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar or draw
50%
Brisbane Roar or Auckland
75%
Draw or Auckland
75%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
10%
Auckland wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
66%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
30%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
10%
Auckland 1+ goals
81%
Auckland 2+ goals
49%
Auckland 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
34%
Auckland (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Auckland away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar attack 1.30 + Auckland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Auckland attack 1.75 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brisbane Roar scores more
25%
level
25%
Auckland scores more
50%

Auckland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Brisbane Roar 0–2 Auckland

Auckland beat Brisbane Roar 2-0 in A-League on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.