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Brisbane Roar II vs Western Pride — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
FT
2 – 0
Western Pride
Western Pride
5/19/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 17Logan Metro Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Brisbane Roar II49%
×Draw22%
Western Pride29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar II
1.98
Western Pride
1.48

Brisbane Roar II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 14 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.67
Western Pride
1.00

allows per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.96
Western Pride
2.29

finishing

Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar II ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar II or draw
71%
Brisbane Roar II or Western Pride
78%
Draw or Western Pride
51%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
28%
Western Pride wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
86%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
59%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
31%
Western Pride 1+ goals
77%
Western Pride 2+ goals
43%
Western Pride 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
63%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.96 · 94 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.67 + Western Pride defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Western Pride attack 1.00 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brisbane Roar II scores more
49%
level
22%
Western Pride scores more
29%

Brisbane Roar II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brisbane Roar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Roar II vs Western Pride

Brisbane Roar II beat Western Pride 2-0 in Queensland NPL on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Logan Metro Sports Complex in Logan City.