Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brisbane Roar II vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland NPL 2019

Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
10/9/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 20Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Brisbane Roar II54%
×Draw20%
Magpies Crusaders26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar II
2.29
Magpies Crusaders
1.53

Brisbane Roar II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 30 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.67
Magpies Crusaders
1.10

allows per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.96
Magpies Crusaders
2.90

finishing

Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar II ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar II or draw
74%
Brisbane Roar II or Magpies Crusaders
80%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
46%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
33%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
90%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
66%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
40%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
78%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
45%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
68%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.96 · 94 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.67 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.29

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brisbane Roar II scores more
54%
level
20%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
26%

Brisbane Roar II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brisbane Roar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Brisbane Roar II 5–0 Magpies Crusaders

Brisbane Roar II beat Magpies Crusaders 5-0 in Queensland NPL on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Sologinkin Oval in Glenella.