Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brisbane Roar II vs Gold Coast Knights — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
B. Inman 86'
7/27/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 17Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Brisbane Roar II30%
×Draw22%
Gold Coast Knights48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar II
1.52
Gold Coast Knights
1.98

Gold Coast Knights creates 30% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 91 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.73
Gold Coast Knights
2.09

allows per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.88
Gold Coast Knights
1.31

finishing

Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par
Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar II ↓

Gold Coast Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar II or draw
52%
Brisbane Roar II or Gold Coast Knights
78%
Draw or Gold Coast Knights
70%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
14%
Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
78%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
45%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
20%
Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
86%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
59%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
38%
Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Gold Coast Knights away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.73 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.09 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brisbane Roar II scores more
30%
level
22%
Gold Coast Knights scores more
48%

Gold Coast Knights at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
S. Klein
26'
S. Klein
74'
I. Ozzi
74'
I. Ozzi
86'
B. Inman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Brisbane Roar II 0–1 Gold Coast Knights

Gold Coast Knights beat Brisbane Roar II 1-0 in Queensland NPL on July 27, 2024.

Goals: B. Inman (86').

The match was played at Perry Park in Brisbane.