Brisbane City 3–2 Western Pride: Result & Stats

Brisbane City

FT

3 – 2

Western Pride

10/2/2021

Queensland Premier League · Semi-finalsSpencer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brisbane City70%

×Draw16%

Western Pride14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane CityExpected goals in this matchWestern Pride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

1.21

Brisbane City

2.84

Western Pride

1.21

Brisbane City creates 135% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

3.75

creates per match

1.66

0.75

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Brisbane City

3.75

Western Pride

1.66

allows per match

Brisbane City

0.75

Western Pride

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par

Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

Western Pride →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw

86%

Brisbane City or Western Pride

84%

Draw or Western Pride

30%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+

50%

Western Pride wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals

94%

Brisbane City 2+ goals

77%

Brisbane City 3+ goals

53%

Western Pride 1+ goals

70%

Western Pride 2+ goals

34%

Western Pride 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)

83%

Western Pride (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 3.75 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.84

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Brisbane City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Brisbane City scores more

70%

level

16%

Western Pride scores more

14%

Brisbane City at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff