Brisbane City 3–0 Southside Eagles: Result & Stats

Brisbane City

FT

3 – 0

Southside Eagles

9/3/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 22Spencer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brisbane City76%

×Draw14%

Southside Eagles10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane CityExpected goals in this matchSouthside Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.00

Brisbane City

2.98

Southside Eagles

1.00

Brisbane City creates 198% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 53 away

3.75

creates per match

1.26

0.75

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Brisbane City

3.75

Southside Eagles

1.26

allows per match

Brisbane City

0.75

Southside Eagles

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

Southside Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw

90%

Brisbane City or Southside Eagles

86%

Draw or Southside Eagles

24%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+

57%

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals

95%

Brisbane City 2+ goals

79%

Brisbane City 3+ goals

56%

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

63%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

26%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)

89%

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 3.75 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.98

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Brisbane City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Brisbane City scores more

76%

level

14%

Southside Eagles scores more

10%

Brisbane City at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff