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Brisbane City vs Redlands United — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane City
Brisbane City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Redlands United
Redlands United
5/6/2023Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 9Imperial Corp Stadium 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Brisbane City49%
×Draw21%
Redlands United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane City
2.14
Redlands United
1.67

Brisbane City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 60 away

creates per match

Brisbane City
1.83
Redlands United
1.35

allows per match

Brisbane City
1.99
Redlands United
2.45

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par
Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

Redlands United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw
69%
Brisbane City or Redlands United
79%
Draw or Redlands United
51%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+
28%
Redlands United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals
88%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
63%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
36%
Redlands United 1+ goals
81%
Redlands United 2+ goals
50%
Redlands United 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)
61%
Redlands United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.99 · 81 matches

Redlands United away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 1.83 + Redlands United defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.14

Redlands United attack 1.35 + Brisbane City defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brisbane City scores more
49%
level
21%
Redlands United scores more
31%

Brisbane City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Brisbane City 1–4 Redlands United

Redlands United beat Brisbane City 4-1 in Queensland NPL on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Imperial Corp Stadium 1 in Brisbane.