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Brisbane City vs Logan Lightning — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane City
Brisbane City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
7/31/2022Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 19Spencer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brisbane City39%
×Draw21%
Logan Lightning40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane City
1.89
Logan Lightning
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 24 away

creates per match

Brisbane City
1.82
Logan Lightning
1.88

allows per match

Brisbane City
1.97
Logan Lightning
1.96

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw
60%
Brisbane City or Logan Lightning
79%
Draw or Logan Lightning
61%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+
21%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals
85%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
56%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
29%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
85%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
57%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)
49%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 1.82 + Logan Lightning defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.89

Logan Lightning attack 1.88 + Brisbane City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brisbane City scores more
39%
level
21%
Logan Lightning scores more
40%

Logan Lightning at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane City vs Logan Lightning

Brisbane City beat Logan Lightning 4-1 in Queensland NPL on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Spencer Park in Brisbane.