Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brisbane City vs Ipswich Knights — Queensland Premier League 2021

Brisbane City
Brisbane City
FT
6 – 0
Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
4/17/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 5Spencer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brisbane City72%
×Draw14%
Ipswich Knights13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane City
3.17
Ipswich Knights
1.35

Brisbane City creates 135% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

Brisbane City
3.75
Ipswich Knights
1.95

allows per match

Brisbane City
0.75
Ipswich Knights
2.60

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par
Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

Ipswich Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw
87%
Brisbane City or Ipswich Knights
86%
Draw or Ipswich Knights
28%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+
53%
Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals
96%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
82%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
60%
Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
74%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
39%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)
84%
Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 3.75 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.17

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + Brisbane City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Brisbane City scores more
72%
level
14%
Ipswich Knights scores more
13%

Brisbane City at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Brisbane City 6–0 Ipswich Knights

Brisbane City beat Ipswich Knights 6-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Spencer Park in Brisbane.