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Brisbane City vs Eastern Suburbs — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane City
Brisbane City
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
J. Mudnic 27'
K. Bolton 25'
L. Cant 76'
A. Barnett 69'
K. Kimishima 52', 49'
3/2/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 2Imperial Corp Stadium 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Brisbane City43%
×Draw21%
Eastern Suburbs36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane City
2.06
Eastern Suburbs
1.87

Brisbane City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Brisbane City
1.82
Eastern Suburbs
1.77

allows per match

Brisbane City
1.97
Eastern Suburbs
2.29

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par
Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

Eastern Suburbs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw
64%
Brisbane City or Eastern Suburbs
79%
Draw or Eastern Suburbs
57%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+
24%
Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals
87%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
61%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
34%
Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
85%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
56%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)
55%
Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 1.82 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Brisbane City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brisbane City scores more
43%
level
21%
Eastern Suburbs scores more
36%

Brisbane City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
K. Bolton
27'
J. Mudnic
49'
K. Kimishima
52'
K. Kimishima
69'
A. Barnett
76'
L. Cant

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane City vs Eastern Suburbs

Eastern Suburbs beat Brisbane City 4-2 in Queensland NPL on March 2, 2025.

Goals: K. Bolton (25'), J. Mudnic (27'), K. Kimishima (49', 52'), A. Barnett (69'), L. Cant (76').

The match was played at Imperial Corp Stadium 1 in Brisbane.