Brinkumer SV 1–9 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

Brinkumer SV

1 – 9

HT: 0 – 6

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

1/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brinkumer SV19%

×Draw14%

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brinkumer SVExpected goals in this matchSchwarz-Weiß Rehden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

4.53

Brinkumer SV

2.53

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

4.53

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden creates 79% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

2.33

creates per match

2.73

6.33

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Brinkumer SV

2.33

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

2.73

allows per match

Brinkumer SV

6.33

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brinkumer SV+0.00on par

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over97
Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinkumer SV ↓

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–32%

0–42%

1–00%

1–11%

1–23%

1–34%

1–45%

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–35%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–34%

3–45%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–4 (6%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

97%3%3.5

90%10%4.5

79%21%

Double chance

Brinkumer SV or draw

33%

Brinkumer SV or Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

86%

Draw or Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

81%

Winning margin

Brinkumer SV wins by 2+

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Brinkumer SV 1+ goals

92%

Brinkumer SV 2+ goals

71%

Brinkumer SV 3+ goals

46%

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 1+ goals

99%

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 2+ goals

93%

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 3+ goals

79%

Draw no bet

Brinkumer SV (draw refunded)

22%

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

90%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brinkumer SV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden away — creates 2.73, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brinkumer SV attack 2.33 + Schwarz-Weiß Rehden defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.53

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden attack 2.73 + Brinkumer SV defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brinkumer SV scores more

19%

level

14%

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden scores more

67%

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Schwarz-Weiß Rehden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Brinkumer SV 1–9 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden beat Brinkumer SV 9-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2024.

Brinkumer SV vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Brinkumer SV 1–9 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden