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Brinkumer SV vs OSC Bremerhaven — League #749 2026

Brinkumer SV
Brinkumer SV
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
OSC Bremerhaven
OSC Bremerhaven
10/26/2025League #749League #749 · Bremen - 11SPA Brinkum Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brinkumer SV45%
×Draw20%
OSC Bremerhaven35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brinkumer SV
2.20
OSC Bremerhaven
1.92

Brinkumer SV creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brinkumer SV
1.40
OSC Bremerhaven
1.33

allows per match

Brinkumer SV
2.50
OSC Bremerhaven
3.00

finishing

Brinkumer SV+0.00on par
OSC Bremerhaven+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinkumer SV ↓

OSC Bremerhaven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Brinkumer SV or draw
65%
Brinkumer SV or OSC Bremerhaven
80%
Draw or OSC Bremerhaven
55%

Winning margin

Brinkumer SV wins by 2+
26%
OSC Bremerhaven wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Brinkumer SV 1+ goals
89%
Brinkumer SV 2+ goals
64%
Brinkumer SV 3+ goals
37%
OSC Bremerhaven 1+ goals
85%
OSC Bremerhaven 2+ goals
57%
OSC Bremerhaven 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Brinkumer SV (draw refunded)
57%
OSC Bremerhaven (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinkumer SV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

OSC Bremerhaven away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinkumer SV attack 1.40 + OSC Bremerhaven defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

OSC Bremerhaven attack 1.33 + Brinkumer SV defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brinkumer SV scores more
45%
level
20%
OSC Bremerhaven scores more
35%

Brinkumer SV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brinkumer SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #749: Brinkumer SV 2–0 OSC Bremerhaven

Brinkumer SV beat OSC Bremerhaven 2-0 in League #749 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at SPA Brinkum Platz 2 in Stuhr.