Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brinkumer SV vs Oberneuland — League #749 2026

Brinkumer SV
Brinkumer SV
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oberneuland
Oberneuland
3/21/2026League #749League #749 · Bremen - 23SPA Brinkum Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Brinkumer SV22%
×Draw18%
Oberneuland60%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brinkumer SV
1.65
Oberneuland
2.75

Oberneuland creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brinkumer SV
1.40
Oberneuland
3.00

allows per match

Brinkumer SV
2.50
Oberneuland
1.91

finishing

Brinkumer SV+0.00on par
Oberneuland+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinkumer SV ↓

Oberneuland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Brinkumer SV or draw
40%
Brinkumer SV or Oberneuland
82%
Draw or Oberneuland
78%

Winning margin

Brinkumer SV wins by 2+
10%
Oberneuland wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Brinkumer SV 1+ goals
81%
Brinkumer SV 2+ goals
49%
Brinkumer SV 3+ goals
23%
Oberneuland 1+ goals
93%
Oberneuland 2+ goals
75%
Oberneuland 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Brinkumer SV (draw refunded)
27%
Oberneuland (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinkumer SV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

Oberneuland away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinkumer SV attack 1.40 + Oberneuland defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Oberneuland attack 3.00 + Brinkumer SV defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Brinkumer SV scores more
22%
level
18%
Oberneuland scores more
60%

Oberneuland at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Oberneuland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brinkumer SV vs Oberneuland

Brinkumer SV beat Oberneuland 2-1 in League #749 on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at SPA Brinkum Platz 2 in Stuhr.