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Brinje-Grosuplje vs Zagorje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
CANC
14:00
Zagorje
Zagorje
3/27/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Brinje-Grosuplje83%
×Draw11%
Zagorje6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brinje-Grosuplje
3.10
Zagorje
0.75

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 313% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Brinje-Grosuplje
2.10
Zagorje
0.70

allows per match

Brinje-Grosuplje
0.80
Zagorje
4.10

finishing

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par
Zagorje+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinje-Grosuplje ↓

Zagorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Brinje-Grosuplje or draw
94%
Brinje-Grosuplje or Zagorje
89%
Draw or Zagorje
17%

Winning margin

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
64%
Zagorje wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
95%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
81%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
58%
Zagorje 1+ goals
53%
Zagorje 2+ goals
17%
Zagorje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
93%
Zagorje (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinje-Grosuplje at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Zagorje away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 2.10 + Zagorje defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 3.10

Zagorje attack 0.70 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
83%
level
11%
Zagorje scores more
6%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brinje-Grosuplje host Zagorje

March 27, 2021: Brinje-Grosuplje take on Zagorje in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.