Brinje-Grosuplje 1–1 Krka: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Brinje-Grosuplje

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Krka

S. Matjaž 87'

V. Šalja 90+4'

11/6/2024

2. SNL · Round 9Stadion Ivančna Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Brinje-Grosuplje46%

×Draw26%

Krka28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brinje-GrosupljeExpected goals in this matchKrka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.48

Krka

1.11

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 33% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

1.70

creates per match

1.30

0.93

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.70

Krka

1.30

allows per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

0.93

Krka

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Krka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinje-Grosuplje ↓

Krka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brinje-Grosuplje or draw

72%

Brinje-Grosuplje or Krka

74%

Draw or Krka

54%

Winning margin

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+

23%

Krka wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals

77%

Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals

43%

Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals

19%

Krka 1+ goals

67%

Krka 2+ goals

30%

Krka 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)

62%

Krka (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinje-Grosuplje at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Krka away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.70 + Krka defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Krka attack 1.30 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more

46%

level

26%

Krka scores more

28%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

K. Lalić← M. Carl

63'

T. Kovačić← M. Gliha

64'

J. Kovač← J. Zorica

80'

K. Kovač← N. Jovićević

87'

S. Matjaž

89'

K. Trdin← A. Jašaragič

89'

N. Klašnja← M. Kene

90+4'

V. Šalja

Brinje-Grosuplje

Krka

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Markovič

64'▲J. Kovač←▼J. Zorica

80'▲K. Kovač←▼N. Jovićević

89'▲K. Trdin←▼A. Jašaragič

89'▲N. Klašnja←▼M. Kene

Brinje-Grosuplje substitutes

KovačKovačTrdinKlašnjaMarkovićTomšičTrobec

Manager: A. Zildžović

57'▲K. Lalić←▼M. Carl

63'▲T. Kovačić←▼M. Gliha

Krka substitutes

LalićKovačićOvijačJudežKržanKoprivnikKatičBožičMitič