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Brinje-Grosuplje vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Fužinar
Fužinar
9/25/20222. SNL2. SNL · Round 9Stadion Brinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Brinje-Grosuplje52%
×Draw24%
Fužinar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brinje-Grosuplje
1.76
Fužinar
1.15

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 53% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 65 away

creates per match

Brinje-Grosuplje
1.70
Fužinar
1.37

allows per match

Brinje-Grosuplje
0.93
Fužinar
1.82

finishing

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par
Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinje-Grosuplje ↓

Fužinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brinje-Grosuplje or draw
75%
Brinje-Grosuplje or Fužinar
76%
Draw or Fužinar
48%

Winning margin

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
28%
Fužinar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
83%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
52%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
26%
Fužinar 1+ goals
68%
Fužinar 2+ goals
32%
Fužinar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
67%
Fužinar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinje-Grosuplje at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.70 + Fužinar defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fužinar attack 1.37 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
52%
level
24%
Fužinar scores more
25%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Fužinar

Fužinar beat Brinje-Grosuplje 3-2 in 2. SNL on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Brinje in Grosuplje.