Brinje-Grosuplje 1–1 Bistrica: Result & Stats

Brinje-Grosuplje

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bistrica

K. Kovač 33'

J. Martinčič 77' (pen)

9/7/2024

2. SNL · Round 5Stadion Ivančna Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Brinje-Grosuplje48%

×Draw25%

Bistrica27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brinje-GrosupljeExpected goals in this matchBistrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.59

Bistrica

1.11

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 43% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.70

creates per match

1.30

0.93

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.70

Bistrica

1.30

allows per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

0.93

Bistrica

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Bistrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinje-Grosuplje ↓

Bistrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brinje-Grosuplje or draw

73%

Brinje-Grosuplje or Bistrica

75%

Draw or Bistrica

52%

Winning margin

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+

25%

Bistrica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals

80%

Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals

47%

Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals

21%

Bistrica 1+ goals

67%

Bistrica 2+ goals

30%

Bistrica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)

65%

Bistrica (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinje-Grosuplje at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Bistrica away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.70 + Bistrica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bistrica attack 1.30 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more

48%

level

25%

Bistrica scores more

27%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

K. Kovač

46'

M. Plavec Marković← J. Zajc

59'

R. Frešer← B. Horvat

59'

S. Krapukhin← M. Tavares

59'

E. Marsetič← A. Dukarić

70'

D. Vitamvas← N. Zrnec

77'

J. MartinčičPenalty

79'

T. Jurić← J. Kovač

87'

N. Lindo← K. Kovač

87'

M. Mehle← M. Kene

Brinje-Grosuplje

Bistrica

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Markovič

46'▲M. Plavec Marković←▼J. Zajc

70'▲D. Vitamvas←▼N. Zrnec

79'▲T. Jurić←▼J. Kovač

87'▲N. Lindo←▼K. Kovač

87'▲M. Mehle←▼M. Kene

Brinje-Grosuplje substitutes

MarkovićVitamvasJurićLindoMehleZrnecLazarević

Manager: R. Pevnik

59'▲R. Frešer←▼B. Horvat

59'▲S. Krapukhin←▼M. Tavares

59'▲E. Marsetič←▼A. Dukarić

Bistrica substitutes

FrešerKrapukhinMarsetičKorošecOstojičPoredošTomažičKobalŠkerget